Will home teams continue to dominate the NBA Playoffs?  Can the youth of the Lakers out-play the experience of the Spurs?  These are a few of the questions that come to mind before Wednesday night’s Western Conference Finals opening game.  For the sports bettor, the questions don’t stop there, we have the spread to consider as well!

Western Confernce Finals - Game 1 - San Antonio Spurs @ L.A. Lakers
It’s hard to compare the NBA regular season to the playoffs, even when the teams have played each-other a number of times.  It’s even harder when those teams have only played two games against each-other.  It’s harder yet to decipher who the better team is when the regular season series is split 1-1.  The major factor that seems to have played into both victories whether or not the team was playing on their home court.  The Lakers dominated the Spurs by 21 points in early April in Los Angeles, and you could make a strong argument that the Lakers have evolved into an even better team at this point in the season.  I will admit that it is hard to bet against the Spurs in the playoffs in any situation, but I just don’t see the same spark, the same team chemistry that past Spurs teams exuded.  It may be short-sited on my part, but I’m strong on the Lakers at home by seven Wednesday night.

Western Conference Finals - Game 1 Pick:  Los Angeles Lakers -7

Popularity: 11% [?]

Now it’s time to get down to business.  The Pistons and Celtics made it through the rest of the Eastern playoff field, and Tuesday night they meet in Boston to start their mutual quest for the coveted Eastern Conference slot in the NBA Finals.  The Celtics have the hype, the Pistons have the experience.  Will Boston live up to the expectations or do the Pistons have another title run in them?  Tough questions to answer, but we’ll give them a try for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals Tuesday Night.

5/20/2008 - Detroit Pistons @ Boston Celtics
You’ve heard it before, “To be the best, you have to beat the best”, and that’s exactly what the Detroit Pistons are going to have to do to push themselves into the NBA Finals.  Boston is incredibly tough at home.  Combined with the ridiculous winning trend that home teams are having in the playoffs this year, I don’t see how you can rationally take the Pistons in Game 1.  The game will be a good barometer for the rest of the series, particularly because Boston has the edge with 4 home games to Detroit’s 3.  I think Boston has finally turned a corner.  Instead of expecting to win, they have the confidence to win, and a chip on their shoulder to prove they are as good as everyone thinks they are.
Free NBA Playoff Pick:  Boston Celtics -4.5

Popularity: 11% [?]

Game Time:  Saturday, April 5th - 8:45 PM ET
Pick:  North Carolina -3 vs Kansas
If you’ve watched these teams play, you’ve seen how good they both really are.  The reason North Carolina gets the edge is consistency.  Kansas is a hot-cold team as we all saw against Davidson, and though they managed to pull out the victory based purely on superior talent, they won’t have that luxury against UNC.  The Jayhawks almost certainly have more players that will end up in the NBA, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that they are the better college basketball team.  I guess you could say that I see North Carolina as more of an elite team and Kansas more of five individuals on the court with a few elite players.  Look, I realize that I’m on the bandwagon here as over 70% of the betting world has picked the Tar Heels to cover the three point spread.  However, one thing I’ve noticed throughout the years is that the public struggles mightily during regular season games in all sports, but in the big prime time events they fair significantly better, particularly when the spread is so low.

Popularity: 10% [?]

Game time:  Saturday, April 5th - 6:05 PM ET
Pick:  UCLA +2 vs Memphis
Memphis looks to be the better team in this match up on paper.  Their problem is that, of course, basketball is not played on paper, it’s played on the hardwood.  I still have a problem with Memphis accumulating their stats for the season in Conference USA.  My contention is that UCLA would earn at least as good of stats as Memphis if they were to play in Conference USA while I do not think Memphis could match UCLA’s numbers in the PAC 10.  What I’m really saying here is that I see UCLA as the better team.  I can tell you right now that Memphis has impressed me throughout this tournament.  It’s not that I didn’t think they could make it to the Final Four, it’s just that I did not expect them to dominate teams like Texas and Michigan State like they did.  UCLA has done pretty much what everyone thought they would do.  They play some of the best defense in the nation and they’ve dominated the teams you’d expect them to.  It probably sounds like a broken record at this point since it’s been said so many times, but the difference in this game will come from the Bruins’ defense.  You basically have to pick a side.  You’ve got a Memphis team that has been virtually unstoppable on offense, against the UCLA team that has held three of their last four NCAA tournament opponents under 60 points.  Match that stat with the fact that UCLA has been able to play with high-octane offenses throughout the season and you’ve got a real winning combination.

Popularity: 13% [?]

It’s time to get excited about MLB betting!  For far too long, Major League Baseball has taken a backseat to the other major sports in the world of sports betting.  Most people are under the impression that there are no profits to be made in betting on baseball.  They couldn’t be more wrong!  MLB betting has more potential than any other sport to make you money and, when you bet intelligently based on value, there is significantly less risk involved.  MLB bets are almost always based on the money line.  That means that there is no point spread involved, if you pick a winning side on the money line, your team simply has to win.  So, what makes this concept any different, or better, than betting on the more conventional sports like football and basketball?  Money line MLB betting allows the bettor to risk less money in order to profit when you bet on underdogs.  Underdogs are simply the team that the sportsbook thinks will lose the game, the bigger the underdog, the bigger the payout. 

For example, we will say Tampa Bay is playing Boston.  Most bettors, and therefore most sportsbooks, are definitely going to have Boston favored in this game, perhaps by as much as 2 to 1.  Their logic is that the Red Sox have twice as good of a chance to win than do the Devil Rays.  If you polled the general public over the past several seasons, you’d likely have the large majority of people say that the Red Sox would easily win any given game against the Devil Rays as well, in fact, they might be willing to put money on it. 

Let’s take a look at what would have happened to these hypothetical people had they put their money where their mouth is and bet the Red Sox on the money line every time they played the D-Rays throughout the 2006 MLB Season.  We will assume this particular person bet to win $100 on each game:

Boston Red Sox v. Tampa Bay Devil Rays | 2006

Series 1
Bet on Boston $146 to win $100 > Result: Loss -$146
Bet on Boston $128 to win $100 > Result: Loss -$128
Bet on Boston $120 to win $100 > Result: Win $100

Series 1 Results:  1-2 Record , Down $174

Series 2
Bet on Boston $153 to win $100 > Result:  Win $100
Bet on Boston $107 to win $100 > Result:  Loss -$107
Bet on Boston $194 to win $100 > Result:  Loss -$194
Bet on Boston $143 to win $100 > Result:  Loss -$143

Series 2 Results:  1-3 Record, Down $344

Series 3
Bet on Boston $185 to win $100 > Result:  Win $100
Bet on Boston $273 to win $100 > Result:  Win $100
Bet on Boston $107 to win $100 > Result:  Win $100
Bet on Boston $330 to win $100 > Result:  Win $100

Series 3 Results:  4-0 Record, Up $400

Series 4
Bet on Boston $172 to win $100 > Result:  Loss -$172
Bet on Boston $138 to win $100 > Result:  Win $100
Bet on Boston $150 to win $100 > Result:  Loss –$150

Series 4 Results:  1-2 Record, Down $222

Series 5
Bet on Boston $163 to win $100 > Result:  Loss -$163
Bet on Boston $295 to win $100 > Result:  Win $100
Bet on Boston $201 to win $100 > Result:  Win $100

Series 5 Results:  2-1 Record, Up $37

 

Overall Results:  9-8 Record, Down $303

These results speak volumes.  First, you may notice that the overall record was a winning one, however the net money gain was negative.  It is important to remember when choosing to bet on favorites, you are going to need to win a significantly higher percentage of your bets to see any profits.  What we need to look at is potential, which is really what is most important in MLB betting. 

Now, what if you would have bet on the D-Rays instead?  What would those results look like?  Well, for starters you would have gone 8-9, a losing record, but you would have won approximately $273!  As for potential there is no comparison, you were risking a total of $1,700 with the potential to win approximately $2,700!

Now, obviously it is much more difficult to pick underdogs to win, but when you put it into the perspective of risk versus reward it is definitely worth your time researching for MLB betting.     

Situations like this happen all the time.  Granted, it is not the norm, but if you know how to pick your spots you can profit this season for sure.

Popularity: 10% [?]

With March Madness just a week away and Selection Sunday coming this weekend, it’s time to prepare to fill out your bracket!  Before we jump right into the tips, let’s get a few things out of the way.  First off, you are going to run into thousands of tips on the Internet on how to win your NCAA bracket.  So what makes our list so much better?  Well, it pains me to say it, but nothing, really.  The fact of the matter is that we are providing tips, and they are by no means perfect.  Could they help?  Sure!  Could they ruin your bracket?  We hope not!  Basically, what we’ve done is gone out and collected as many good tips as we could.  Because there are so many to pick from out there, we were hoping to compile a list that sorted through all the BS and gave you the tips that really matter and I think we’ve accomplished that.  Now, I certainly don’t want to discourage you, but the last thing I want to say before getting into the list is that you aren’t going to fill out a perfect bracket this year.  You probably won’t ever fill out a perfect bracket in your lifetime.  I know that’s discouraging, but keep in mind that you won’t need to go undefeated to win your pool and have fun during March Madness cheering your teams on.  You know how you always hear about the odds to win the lottery?  How it’s more likely to get struck by lightning, or freeze to death, or whatever ridiculous scenario they can come up with, than it is to win the lottery?  Ha!  Whoever said that must not be a very big basketball fan.  The odds to win the Powerball Lottery are just over 146 million to 1.  Compare that to the odds to fill out a perfect NCAA Tournament bracket, which comes in at well over 9 quintillion to 1 (9 quintillion is a 9 with 18 zeroes behind it), and you can clearly see how difficult it would be to pull off the perfect picks through every round of the tournament.  Now that I’ve said all of that and given you some fun facts, let’s get to our NCAA Tournament Tips list already!

(Almost) Anything Goes In The First Round
This is pretty basic, but an important tip to remember.  Don’t give your bracket the kiss-of-death and pick any 16 seeds to beat 1 seeds (and normally not any 15 seeds to beat 2 seeds), but just about everything else goes!  You have to ignore the favorites in these match ups and pick some low seeds.  It might go against logic, but face it, the better-seeded team does not always win.  Also keep in mind that since 1989 there has been only one NCAA Tournament in which a 12th seeded team did not beat a 5th seeded team, so you should pick one or more 12 seeds to win in the first round, but be selective!

Seed Difference Matters
This conflicts a little with our first tip, but remember not to put all of your eggs in one basket, you’ll need a balanced approach to win your pool!  Throughout the history of the NCAA Tournament you’ll find that a seed difference of 4 or more leads to an 80% chance of victory.  So, if a 3 seed is playing 9 seed (a seed difference of 6), 80% of the time the 3 seed will win.  That means that the majority of your picks in the first round should be favorites, but you do need to pick and choose some upsets if you are going to beat your competition.

A #1 Seed Is Pretty Sweet
Another great stat that will help you on your way to winning your NCAA Tournament pool is that historically #1 seeds have an 84% chance of making it to at least the Sweet 16.  That means that at least three, and probably all four, of the #1 seeds in your bracket should advance to the Sweet 16.  I do realize there are always upset opportunities, and my advice is to pick them when you truly feel it’s the right pick, just be aware of the odds that are against you!

They Call It The “Elite 8″ For A Reason
Once you get to the Elite 8 portion of your bracket, try to clear your mind and start over.  Once we hit that point in the tournament, the best teams are the best teams.  If a “Cinderella” team slips into your Elite 8, that’s great, just don’t go sending them to the Final Four.  Use your head once you get to that point.  Normally, the better seed is going to win, or the team that is favored according to the Vegas odds.  Imagine which of your teams will be favored, not who you want to win, and advance them to the Final Four.  The really good teams are there for a reason, the lower seeds are just happy to be there at that point and they are likely running on fumes. 

Hopefully all, or at least a few, of these tips were helpful, or at least gave you some information you might not have known.  Good luck with your brackets and enjoy March Madness!!!

Popularity: 60% [?]

#1 North Carolina (28-2) @ #5 Duke (26-3)
This is the second installment this season of one of the best rivalries in any sport at any level.  The first showdown was a decisive Duke victory at North Carolina as the Blue Devils beat the Tar Heels 89-78 just over a month ago.  As you’re already aware, a lot can change in a month, particularly in college basketball.  Since the Duke loss, UNC has won 7 in a row and has earned the #1 ranking in the nation.  After beating their talent rivals Duke has managed a 6-2 record, but losses at Wake Forest and Miami were games that the Devils were expected to win.  The best angle to look at in this situation is revenge.  North Carolina was out-played by Duke in the first meeting, but I’m still of the opinion that they are the more talented squad.  Now that North Carolina is the #1 team in the nation I think they have the confidence and swagger it’s going to take to go into Duke and beat them on their home court.  Surprisingly, 4 out of the last 5 match ups in this series has been won by the visiting team, a stat that shows the intensity of this rivalry and a stat that gives me all the more confidence in picking North Carolina.  One paper the teams match up well, UNC is the more offensive-oriented team with Duke having slightly better defensive stats.  The fact is that you can throw all of that out the window tonight because in one of the biggest games of the year in college basketball between the most storied rivalry in the sport, you have to go with momentum and you have to go with motivation.  North Carolina Has both tonight.

College Hoops Pick:  North Carolina Tar Heels +1

Popularity: 10% [?]

Detroit Pistons (44-16) @ Boston Celtics (46-12)
7:30PM EST
The best two teams in the NBA’s Eastern Conference meet tonight in Boston for their second showdown of the season.  Before the Celtics made trades that brought Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen to the team, Detroit absolutely dominated them.  With a win earlier this year in Detroit the Celtics ended what was a nine-game winning streak for the Pistons in this series.  Now that Boston has the talent to keep up with the Pistons they are certainly out for revenge.  Not many franchises are dominated so prominently as the Celtics have been by the Pistons, but, as Boston has proven, the tides are starting to turn.  The Celtics are riding high and on a five-game winning streak and that momentum should carry them to a victory.  Detroit recently finished up a four-game road trip, mostly near the West Coast, hit one game against Seattle at home (a game they nearly lost, mind you, to one of the worst teams in the NBA), and now head over to Boston to clash with the Celtics with there NBA-best 46-12 record.  At this point in the season, on a neutral court or in Detroit I would probably give the edge to the Pistons.  Their defensive numbers are more consistent than Boston’s, they rebound on the offensive and defensive glass more effectively, they don’t turn the ball over as much, and they have a deeper bench than Boston.  The fact of the matter is, however, that the Celtics have been nearly invincible on their home court, earning a 26-4 mark, one of the top home-records in the league.  For all of Detroit’s strengths, the Celtics have something they do not and that is the ability to score from anywhere on the court.  Boston dominates in terms of points-per-game, and field goal and free throw percentage.  All of those things are nice, but I believe that the outcome of this game comes down to Boston’s home court advantage plus the fact that they were able to beat Detroit earlier this year, in Detroit no less, to finally break their losing streak against the Pistons.

NBA Pick:  Boston Celtics -4

Popularity: 9% [?]

The regular NCAA season is winding down and today we take a look at the three games on the board tonight featuring teams in the top 25.  None of these games appear to have any huge impact on teams making the NCAA tournament, but Ohio State/Purdue and Florida State/North Carolina are two games that feature interesting match ups.  #20 Marquette is playing tonight as well, but it’s doubtful there will be odds on their game against Florida Gulf Coast. Let’s jump right into today’s top 25 odds and our picks for each game:

Odds by BodogLife.com

#15 Purdue @ Ohio State -1.5
Pick:  Ohio State -1.5

Florida State @ #1 North Carolina -17.5
Pick:  Florida State +17.5

Nebraska @ #9 Texas -13.5
Pick:  Texas -13.5

That will do it for today’s odds and picks.  Be sure to check back soon for our Final Four picks and much more March Madness content!

Popularity: 11% [?]

Utah Jazz (37-21) @ New Orleans (38-18)
8:00PM EST
A lot of experts expected the Utah Jazz to be good this season, but a real surprise in the NBA this year has been the New Orleans Hornets.  The Hornets already have 38 wins this season, just one win away from their win total all of last season.  Unfortunately for the Hornets, I don’t see them picking up that 39th win tonight against a very talented Utah team.  The problem New Orleans has is previous history against the Jazz.  Over the past 3 seasons, the Jazz have dominated the Hornets, winning 8 of 10 games, and, most importantly to us, they’ve covered in 7 of 10 games against New Orleans including an impressive 110-88 win in Utah earlier this month.  The Jazz average about 5 points more per game than New Orleans, and that seems like a much more likely outcome than the 3.5 points the Hornets are giving tonight. 

NBA Tip:  Utah Jazz +3.5

Popularity: 9% [?]