Saturday, June 7th could be a historic day in the world of horse racing as Big Brown chases the sport’s most prestigious award, the Triple Crown.  Having already won the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes, Big Brown just needs to come out on top at Belmont to complete the triple crown.  He is already a heavy favorite against the rest of the field.  His top competition looks like it will be coming from Casino Drive, who, at 7/2, is by far the closest competitor according to the odds.  There have been some concerns that Big Brown is tired out, that the close races and travel would impede his run at the crown, but his trainers and  outside experts alike have put to bed any of those worries by watching him this Tuesday morning.  This is the type of event that really transcends a sport like horse racing.  There hasn’t been a Triple Crown winner in nearly 30 years, and now we all get a chance to possibly witness history.  While it takes character to cheer for the underdog, there’s no shame in cheering on greatness.  The world will be watching to see if Big Brown can live up to the enormous expectations that have been placed on him.  Now, let’s look at the odds that are currently posted on each horse scheduled to run in the Belmont Stakes.

Odds to Win the 2008 Belmont Stakes as posted at BodogLife.com

Big Brown   1/3

Casino Drive   7/2

Denis Of Cork   10/1

Tale Of Ekati   20/1

Behindatthebar   25/1

Anak Nakal   40/1

Macho Again   40/1

Readys Image   50/1

Icabad Crane   50/1

Mint Lane   50/1

Spark Candle   50/1

Tomcito  50/1

Popularity: 22% [?]

Game one of the NBA’s Eastern Conference Finals saw the Boston Celtics get out front early and ride to a seemingly easy victory.  Boston is at home again and is again favored to win.  The Pistons have to be desperate to pick up a win on Thursday night as it will be terribly difficult for them to recover from a 2-0 deficit.  If current trends continue, the Celtics will win Thursday, Detroit will win the next two of the series, and the Celtics will win game seven in Boston.  I think the numbers have to catch up, it just isn’t clear yet who they will catch up to.  Looking at the regular season results, you have to think that the Celtics have what it takes to win on the road, they just haven’t proven they can do it in the playoffs.  The Pistons have a great deal of motivation for the game, but they haven’t done anything to impress me enough to think they can win in Boston.  Thursday might be the night that home teams take a turn for the worse and finally stop the domination of the NBA Playoffs, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

Here are the odds for Thursday Night’s NBA Eastern Conference Playoff - Game 2 as posted at Sportsbook.com :

Detroit Pistons @ Boston Celtics -3.5

Popularity: 12% [?]

Now it’s time to get down to business.  The Pistons and Celtics made it through the rest of the Eastern playoff field, and Tuesday night they meet in Boston to start their mutual quest for the coveted Eastern Conference slot in the NBA Finals.  The Celtics have the hype, the Pistons have the experience.  Will Boston live up to the expectations or do the Pistons have another title run in them?  Tough questions to answer, but we’ll give them a try for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals Tuesday Night.

5/20/2008 - Detroit Pistons @ Boston Celtics
You’ve heard it before, “To be the best, you have to beat the best”, and that’s exactly what the Detroit Pistons are going to have to do to push themselves into the NBA Finals.  Boston is incredibly tough at home.  Combined with the ridiculous winning trend that home teams are having in the playoffs this year, I don’t see how you can rationally take the Pistons in Game 1.  The game will be a good barometer for the rest of the series, particularly because Boston has the edge with 4 home games to Detroit’s 3.  I think Boston has finally turned a corner.  Instead of expecting to win, they have the confidence to win, and a chip on their shoulder to prove they are as good as everyone thinks they are.
Free NBA Playoff Pick:  Boston Celtics -4.5

Popularity: 11% [?]

The Preakness Stakes hits the ground running this Saturday.  The Stakes doesn’t carry quite as much clout as the Kentucky Derby (nothing in the world of horse racing does), but everyone’s eyes will still be on Pimlico this weekend.  Let’s face it, everyone wants a Triple Crown winner.  It’s been a long time.  Nearly 29 years.  In 1979 Affirmed ran away with the crown, and there have been some close calls over the years, but no Triple Crown winners since.  I have to say that 2008’s field looks pretty good for Big Brown.  He’s a heavy, heavy favorite on Saturday.  I’m sure that everyone in the horse racing community wants him to win, and thinks he will win, and they are probably right.  He’s by far the best horse of the group.  Big Brown’s #1 fan this weekend has to be Belmont Park (home of the Belmont Stakes).  Imagine the increased buzz if Big Brown has a chance for the Triple Crown.  Then again, imagine the lack of interest if he finishes 2nd at the Preakness.  For what it’s worth, I’ve always been a fan of getting to see history.  I’m not old enough to remember Affirmed, and I, for one, would like to see a Triple Crown winner in my lifetime.  Go Big Brown, go!  For those of you looking at who to bet on this Saturday, I’ve provided the most recent odds posted at Sportsbook.com.  It’s not always fun to bet on the favorite, so have some character and pick a long-shot, it just might pay off!

Here’s a look at  Sportsbook.com’s odds for Saturday’s Preakness Stakes:

Behindatthebar 7 - 1

Yankee Bravo 20 - 1

Good Luck!

Popularity: 11% [?]

It’s known as “The Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports”.  From the center of the horse racing universe, Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky on Saturday, May 3rd, comes the 134th running of the Kentucky Derby.  The field has been set, so naturally the odds have already been posted for who will win the big race this year.  There are two clear-cut favorite horses in this year’s group with Big Brown and Colonel John both coming in with 4 to 1 odds to win the derby.  After the big two, Pyro is next in line with odds makers giving him a 7 to 1 chance to finish first.  What’s interesting about the race is that, after the top 3, the odds increase drastically.  This is sure to change as money starts to flow in on each horse and rider, but early on it looks like the experts are predicting one of those three to come out on top.  It’s always hard to find a balance between a horse that actually has a chance to win an event with this many top-class animals and a horse that is worth betting on because you’ll get a bigger payout if he or she wins.  In any event, here are the latest odds on who will win the Kentucky Derby as of today, as posted at BodogLife:

Odds to Win the 2008 Kentucky Derby

The Favorites
Colonel John                4/1
Big Brown                    4/1
Pyro                              7/1

The Contenders
Z Fortune                   12/1
Denis of Cork             14/1
Eight Belles                14/1
Visionarie                   16/1

The Middle of the Pack
Adriano                      20/1
Monba                        20/1
Court Vision              20/1
Smooth Air                20/1
Big Truck                   25/1
Tale of Ekati              25/1
Bob Black Jack          25/1
Recapturetheglory   25/1
Gayego                       25/1

The Long Shots
Cool Coal Man           50/1
Anak Nakal                50/1
Z Humor                    50/1
Cowboy Cal                50/1

Bet on the Kentucky Derby and a whole lot more at BodogLife.com!

Popularity: 13% [?]

Game Time:  Saturday, April 5th - 8:45 PM ET
Pick:  North Carolina -3 vs Kansas
If you’ve watched these teams play, you’ve seen how good they both really are.  The reason North Carolina gets the edge is consistency.  Kansas is a hot-cold team as we all saw against Davidson, and though they managed to pull out the victory based purely on superior talent, they won’t have that luxury against UNC.  The Jayhawks almost certainly have more players that will end up in the NBA, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that they are the better college basketball team.  I guess you could say that I see North Carolina as more of an elite team and Kansas more of five individuals on the court with a few elite players.  Look, I realize that I’m on the bandwagon here as over 70% of the betting world has picked the Tar Heels to cover the three point spread.  However, one thing I’ve noticed throughout the years is that the public struggles mightily during regular season games in all sports, but in the big prime time events they fair significantly better, particularly when the spread is so low.

Popularity: 10% [?]

Game time:  Saturday, April 5th - 6:05 PM ET
Pick:  UCLA +2 vs Memphis
Memphis looks to be the better team in this match up on paper.  Their problem is that, of course, basketball is not played on paper, it’s played on the hardwood.  I still have a problem with Memphis accumulating their stats for the season in Conference USA.  My contention is that UCLA would earn at least as good of stats as Memphis if they were to play in Conference USA while I do not think Memphis could match UCLA’s numbers in the PAC 10.  What I’m really saying here is that I see UCLA as the better team.  I can tell you right now that Memphis has impressed me throughout this tournament.  It’s not that I didn’t think they could make it to the Final Four, it’s just that I did not expect them to dominate teams like Texas and Michigan State like they did.  UCLA has done pretty much what everyone thought they would do.  They play some of the best defense in the nation and they’ve dominated the teams you’d expect them to.  It probably sounds like a broken record at this point since it’s been said so many times, but the difference in this game will come from the Bruins’ defense.  You basically have to pick a side.  You’ve got a Memphis team that has been virtually unstoppable on offense, against the UCLA team that has held three of their last four NCAA tournament opponents under 60 points.  Match that stat with the fact that UCLA has been able to play with high-octane offenses throughout the season and you’ve got a real winning combination.

Popularity: 13% [?]

Wondering who will win the Masters this year?  A good place to start is at Sportsbook.com.  They’ve posted their odds on who is going to win the biggest event in golf this year.  Of course Tiger Woods leads the pack as the favorite, but what is truly amazing about Tiger is that he’s one of the only golfers who can come into any tournament, let alone a collection of the best players in the world, and be favored so heavily that you actually have to risk more than you can win.  Right now Tiger is at 5/6, basically meaning you’d need to pay $6 for the chance to win $5.  That’s pretty incredible considering the next best according to the sportsbook is Phil Mickelson at 10/1, of course meaning you could bet just $1 and win $10 if he ends up taking the jacket.  There are plenty of capable golfers out there, but when Tiger is on there’s simply no one better.  While in most cases you would never recommend to “bet against” Woods, I think you’d have to explore some other options from a bet-value point of view.  Els at 12-1 or, my favorite, “The Field” at 15-1 are just better betting options no matter how confident anyone is that Tiger Woods will win the 2008 Masters.  Here’s a complete listing of the Odds to Win the 2008 Masters from Sportsbook.com:

    Tiger Woods  5 - 6    
 
    Phil Mickelson  10 - 1    
 
    Ernie Els  12 - 1    
 
    Field (Any Other Golfers)  15 - 1    
 
    KJ Choi  25 - 1    
 
    Adam Scott  30 - 1    
 
    Vijay Singh  30 - 1    
 
    Padraig Harrington  30 - 1    
 
    Jim Furyk  35 - 1    
 
    Justin Rose  35 - 1    
 
    Rory Sabbatini  40 - 1    
 
    Sergio Garcia  40 - 1    
 
    Retief Goosen  50 - 1    
 
    Luke Donald  50 - 1    
 
    Henrik Stenson  50 - 1    
 
    Steve Stricker  50 - 1    
 
    Mike Weir  60 - 1    
 
    Aaron Baddeley  60 - 1    
 
    Stewart Cink  60 - 1    
 
    Geoff Ogilvy  60 - 1    
 
    Zach Johnson  60 - 1    
 
    Sean OHair  70 - 1    
 
    Ryan Moore  75 - 1    
 
    Vaughn Taylor  75 - 1    
 
    Heath Slocum  75 - 1    
 
    Nick Watney  75 - 1    
 
    Stephen Ames  75 - 1    
 
    Lee Westwood  75 - 1    
 
    Fred Couples  75 - 1    
 
    Justin Leonard  80 - 1    
 
    Chris DiMarco  80 - 1    
 
    Trevor Immelman  80 - 1    
 
    Paul Casey  80 - 1    
 
    David Toms  80 - 1    
 
    Angel Cabrera  80 - 1    
 
    Stuart Appleby  80 - 1    
 
    Hunter Mahan  85 - 1    
 
    Jason Day  100 - 1    
 
    Richard Green  100 - 1    
 
    Bubba Watson  100 - 1    
 
    Charl Schwartzel  100 - 1    
 
    Camilo Villegas  100 - 1    
 
    Miguel Angel Jimenez  100 - 1    
 
    Jonathan Byrd  100 - 1    
 
    John Senden  100 - 1    
 
    Carl Pettersson  100 - 1    
 
    Thomas Bjorn  100 - 1    
 
    John Rollins  100 - 1    
 
    Bernhard Langer  100 - 1    
 
    Charley Hoffman  100 - 1    
 
    John Daly  100 - 1    
 
    Anders Hansen  100 - 1    
 
    Brett Wetterich  100 - 1    
 
    Nathan Green  100 - 1    
 
    JJ Henry  100 - 1    
 
    Tom Pernice Jr  100 - 1    
 
    Joe Durant  100 - 1    
 
    Robert Karlsson  100 - 1    
 
    Mark Calcavecchia  100 - 1    
 
    Tom Lehman  100 - 1    
 
    Shaun Micheel  100 - 1    
 
    Ben Curtis  100 - 1    
 
    Bradley Dredge  100 - 1    
 
    Nick Dougherty  100 - 1    
 
    Peter Lonard  100 - 1    
 
    Bo Van Pelt  100 - 1    
 
    Tim Herron  100 - 1    
 
    Fred Funk  100 - 1    
 
    Michael Campbell  100 - 1    
 
    Rich Beem  100 - 1    
 
    Brian Bateman  100 - 1    
 
    Todd Hamilton  100 - 1    
 
    Mark Omeara  100 - 1    
 
    Drew Weaver  100 - 1    
 
    Tom Watson  100 - 1    
 
    Charles Howell III  100 - 1    
 
    Tim Clark  100 - 1    
 
    Jose Maria Olazabal  100 - 1    
 
    Niclas Fasth  100 - 1    
 
    Scott Verplank  100 - 1    
 
    Kenny Perry  100 - 1    
 
    Andres Romero  100 - 1    
 
    Robert Allenby  100 - 1    
 
    Davis Love III  100 - 1    
 
    Rod Pampling  100 - 1    
 
    Arron Oberholser  100 - 1    
 
    Darren Clarke  100 - 1    
 
    Ian Poulter  100 - 1    
 
    Richard Sterne  100 - 1    
 
    Lucas Glover  100 - 1    
 
    Brandt Snedeker  100 - 1    
 
    Boo Weekley  100 - 1    
 
    David Howell  100 - 1    
 
    Chad Campbell  100 - 1    
 
    Colin Montgomerie  100 - 1    
 
    Jerry Kelly  100 - 1    
 
    Anthony Kim  100 - 1    
 
    Woody Austin  100 - 1    
 
    Nick OHern  100 - 1    
 
    Pat Perez  100 - 1   

Popularity: 100% [?]

Now that the field has been set for the NCAA Men’s College Basketball Tournament, we’d like to take a look at who Vegas thinks is going to win it all.  As you might expect, the #1 seeds have the best odds.  North Carolina and UCLA are the odds-on favorites, both coming in at 4 to 1 to win the tournament.  Kansas and Memphis, the other two #1 seeds, are coming in at 5/1 and 6/1 respectively, so, according to Las Vegas odds makers, one of the number one seeds is likely to win the NCAA Championship.  But you don’t need us to tell you that the #1 seeds are the favorites to win the tourney, that’s why they are ranked #1, right?  What we’re more interested in, and what you’re probably more interested in, is which teams could make a run at the tournament that have odds that are a little more in your favor.  The first two teams I’d consider are Texas and Duke, both with 14 to 1 odds to win it all.  You aren’t looking at a monster pay off if one of them does win it all, but I feel that both Duke and Texas have just as good a chance to win the title as a team like Memphis or UCLA and you have to love 14 to 1 compared to 6 to 1 or worse.  Other teams I like in the field to possibly make a run are Wisconsin at 20/1, Stanford at 25/1, and Pitt at 30/1.  These are teams that, if they catch fire, could make a legitimate run in the tournament.  Granted, it would be difficult to do, but the possibility is enough for me to put them on this list.  There are two 40/1 teams that I also like, UConn and Clemson.  These are teams that struggled a little down the stretch, but teams I could see making it deep into the tournament and possibly upsetting one of the big guns in the bracket.  Well, those are our opinions on the recently released odds for the NCAA Basketball Tournament.  Here is the complete listing of the odds from BodogLife.com so you can form your own opinions: 

American 2000/1
 
Arizona 80/1

Arkansas 150/1
 
Austin Peay 1000/1
 
Baylor 150/1
 
Belmont 1500/1
 
Boise State 750/1
 
Butler 100/1
 
BYU 200/1
 
Cal State Fullerton 1500/1
 
Clemson 40/1
 
Connecticut 40/1
 
Coppin State 2500/1
 
Cornell 750/1
 
Davidson 150/1
 
Drake 80/1
 
Duke 14/1
 
George Mason 500/1
 
Georgetown 14/1
 
Georgia 250/1
 
Gonzaga 125/1
 
Indiana 100/1
 
Kansas 5/1
 
Kansas State 75/1
 
Kent State 200/1
 
Kentucky 150/1
 
Louisville 18/1
 
Marquette 55/1
 
Memphis 6/1
 
Miami Florida 100/1
 
Michigan State 50/1
 
Mississippi State 80/1
 
Mississippi Valley State 2500/1
 
Mount St. Mary’s 2500/1
 
North Carolina 4/1
 
Notre Dame 60/1
 
Oklahoma 150/1
 
Oral Roberts 500/1
 
Oregon 150/1
 
Pittsburgh 30/1
 
Portland State 2500/1
 
Purdue 70/1
 
Saint Joseph’s 250/1
 
Saint Mary’s 150/1
 
San Diego 500/1
 
Siena 500/1
 
South Alabama 200/1
 
Stanford 25/1
 
Temple 300/1
 
Tennessee 18/1
 
Texas 14/1
 
Texas A&M 200/1
 
Texas Arlington 2000/1
 
UCLA 4/1
 
UMBC 2000/1
 
UNLV 250/1
 
USC 45/1
 
Vanderbilt 50/1
 
Villanova 250/1
 
Washington State 40/1
 
Western Kentucky 500/1
 
West Virgnia 125/1
 
Winthrop 500/1
 
Wisconsin 20/1
 
Xavier 35/1

Popularity: 38% [?]

With March Madness just a week away and Selection Sunday coming this weekend, it’s time to prepare to fill out your bracket!  Before we jump right into the tips, let’s get a few things out of the way.  First off, you are going to run into thousands of tips on the Internet on how to win your NCAA bracket.  So what makes our list so much better?  Well, it pains me to say it, but nothing, really.  The fact of the matter is that we are providing tips, and they are by no means perfect.  Could they help?  Sure!  Could they ruin your bracket?  We hope not!  Basically, what we’ve done is gone out and collected as many good tips as we could.  Because there are so many to pick from out there, we were hoping to compile a list that sorted through all the BS and gave you the tips that really matter and I think we’ve accomplished that.  Now, I certainly don’t want to discourage you, but the last thing I want to say before getting into the list is that you aren’t going to fill out a perfect bracket this year.  You probably won’t ever fill out a perfect bracket in your lifetime.  I know that’s discouraging, but keep in mind that you won’t need to go undefeated to win your pool and have fun during March Madness cheering your teams on.  You know how you always hear about the odds to win the lottery?  How it’s more likely to get struck by lightning, or freeze to death, or whatever ridiculous scenario they can come up with, than it is to win the lottery?  Ha!  Whoever said that must not be a very big basketball fan.  The odds to win the Powerball Lottery are just over 146 million to 1.  Compare that to the odds to fill out a perfect NCAA Tournament bracket, which comes in at well over 9 quintillion to 1 (9 quintillion is a 9 with 18 zeroes behind it), and you can clearly see how difficult it would be to pull off the perfect picks through every round of the tournament.  Now that I’ve said all of that and given you some fun facts, let’s get to our NCAA Tournament Tips list already!

(Almost) Anything Goes In The First Round
This is pretty basic, but an important tip to remember.  Don’t give your bracket the kiss-of-death and pick any 16 seeds to beat 1 seeds (and normally not any 15 seeds to beat 2 seeds), but just about everything else goes!  You have to ignore the favorites in these match ups and pick some low seeds.  It might go against logic, but face it, the better-seeded team does not always win.  Also keep in mind that since 1989 there has been only one NCAA Tournament in which a 12th seeded team did not beat a 5th seeded team, so you should pick one or more 12 seeds to win in the first round, but be selective!

Seed Difference Matters
This conflicts a little with our first tip, but remember not to put all of your eggs in one basket, you’ll need a balanced approach to win your pool!  Throughout the history of the NCAA Tournament you’ll find that a seed difference of 4 or more leads to an 80% chance of victory.  So, if a 3 seed is playing 9 seed (a seed difference of 6), 80% of the time the 3 seed will win.  That means that the majority of your picks in the first round should be favorites, but you do need to pick and choose some upsets if you are going to beat your competition.

A #1 Seed Is Pretty Sweet
Another great stat that will help you on your way to winning your NCAA Tournament pool is that historically #1 seeds have an 84% chance of making it to at least the Sweet 16.  That means that at least three, and probably all four, of the #1 seeds in your bracket should advance to the Sweet 16.  I do realize there are always upset opportunities, and my advice is to pick them when you truly feel it’s the right pick, just be aware of the odds that are against you!

They Call It The “Elite 8″ For A Reason
Once you get to the Elite 8 portion of your bracket, try to clear your mind and start over.  Once we hit that point in the tournament, the best teams are the best teams.  If a “Cinderella” team slips into your Elite 8, that’s great, just don’t go sending them to the Final Four.  Use your head once you get to that point.  Normally, the better seed is going to win, or the team that is favored according to the Vegas odds.  Imagine which of your teams will be favored, not who you want to win, and advance them to the Final Four.  The really good teams are there for a reason, the lower seeds are just happy to be there at that point and they are likely running on fumes. 

Hopefully all, or at least a few, of these tips were helpful, or at least gave you some information you might not have known.  Good luck with your brackets and enjoy March Madness!!!

Popularity: 60% [?]