Will home teams continue to dominate the NBA Playoffs?  Can the youth of the Lakers out-play the experience of the Spurs?  These are a few of the questions that come to mind before Wednesday night’s Western Conference Finals opening game.  For the sports bettor, the questions don’t stop there, we have the spread to consider as well!

Western Confernce Finals - Game 1 - San Antonio Spurs @ L.A. Lakers
It’s hard to compare the NBA regular season to the playoffs, even when the teams have played each-other a number of times.  It’s even harder when those teams have only played two games against each-other.  It’s harder yet to decipher who the better team is when the regular season series is split 1-1.  The major factor that seems to have played into both victories whether or not the team was playing on their home court.  The Lakers dominated the Spurs by 21 points in early April in Los Angeles, and you could make a strong argument that the Lakers have evolved into an even better team at this point in the season.  I will admit that it is hard to bet against the Spurs in the playoffs in any situation, but I just don’t see the same spark, the same team chemistry that past Spurs teams exuded.  It may be short-sited on my part, but I’m strong on the Lakers at home by seven Wednesday night.

Western Conference Finals - Game 1 Pick:  Los Angeles Lakers -7

Popularity: 11% [?]

Now it’s time to get down to business.  The Pistons and Celtics made it through the rest of the Eastern playoff field, and Tuesday night they meet in Boston to start their mutual quest for the coveted Eastern Conference slot in the NBA Finals.  The Celtics have the hype, the Pistons have the experience.  Will Boston live up to the expectations or do the Pistons have another title run in them?  Tough questions to answer, but we’ll give them a try for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals Tuesday Night.

5/20/2008 - Detroit Pistons @ Boston Celtics
You’ve heard it before, “To be the best, you have to beat the best”, and that’s exactly what the Detroit Pistons are going to have to do to push themselves into the NBA Finals.  Boston is incredibly tough at home.  Combined with the ridiculous winning trend that home teams are having in the playoffs this year, I don’t see how you can rationally take the Pistons in Game 1.  The game will be a good barometer for the rest of the series, particularly because Boston has the edge with 4 home games to Detroit’s 3.  I think Boston has finally turned a corner.  Instead of expecting to win, they have the confidence to win, and a chip on their shoulder to prove they are as good as everyone thinks they are.
Free NBA Playoff Pick:  Boston Celtics -4.5

Popularity: 11% [?]

Sunday, May 18th & Monday, May 19th
NBA fans get some bonus action from this year’s playoffs as both the Cavs/Celtics and Spurs/Hornets series will go to the seventh and final game of the conference semi-final round.  It will be interesting in both games, as well as the remaining NBA playoff games, to see if the trend of home teams dominating their opponents will continue.  The count is now at 13-2, an unprecedented winning percentage for home playoff teams.  It’s become something of a self-fulfilling prophecy at this point.  There’s so much talk about it, plus the numbers to back it up, so teams naturally start believing that they cannot lose at home.  Obviously, teams do have some advantage playing on their home court, but this year they’ve taken it to a completely new level.  If the trend continues, it looks like Boston and New Orleans will advance, but I’m not sold on either one.  The Celtics are starting to remind me a little bit of the New England Patriots last year.  They were so dominant in the regular season, but couldn’t get the job done in the only game that really mattered for their season.  This isn’t the NBA Finals, but it is a very important step for Boston if they want to win the NBA Championship and be considered one of the best teams in the history of the sport.  I also don’t think you can sleep on the Spurs.  Ever.  Chris Paul and the Hornets are having an amazing season.  CP is probably the MVP of the playoffs so far, but his team needs to get past a San Antonio team that knows exactly where they are and what they have to do to win.  Knowing and executing are two very different things, but the Spurs are just so experienced in the playoffs it would be stupid to write them off.  Pick:  For my money, I’d stick with the home teams to win outright.  Against the spread, I’d lean on Cleveland +8 and New Orleans -4.

Odds for the Up-Coming NBA Playoff Games Provided by BodogLife.com

5/18/2008
Cleveland Cavs +8 @
Boston Celtics -8

5/19/2008
San Antonio Spurs +4 @
New Orleans Hornets -4

Popularity: 11% [?]

Detroit Pistons (44-16) @ Boston Celtics (46-12)
7:30PM EST
The best two teams in the NBA’s Eastern Conference meet tonight in Boston for their second showdown of the season.  Before the Celtics made trades that brought Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen to the team, Detroit absolutely dominated them.  With a win earlier this year in Detroit the Celtics ended what was a nine-game winning streak for the Pistons in this series.  Now that Boston has the talent to keep up with the Pistons they are certainly out for revenge.  Not many franchises are dominated so prominently as the Celtics have been by the Pistons, but, as Boston has proven, the tides are starting to turn.  The Celtics are riding high and on a five-game winning streak and that momentum should carry them to a victory.  Detroit recently finished up a four-game road trip, mostly near the West Coast, hit one game against Seattle at home (a game they nearly lost, mind you, to one of the worst teams in the NBA), and now head over to Boston to clash with the Celtics with there NBA-best 46-12 record.  At this point in the season, on a neutral court or in Detroit I would probably give the edge to the Pistons.  Their defensive numbers are more consistent than Boston’s, they rebound on the offensive and defensive glass more effectively, they don’t turn the ball over as much, and they have a deeper bench than Boston.  The fact of the matter is, however, that the Celtics have been nearly invincible on their home court, earning a 26-4 mark, one of the top home-records in the league.  For all of Detroit’s strengths, the Celtics have something they do not and that is the ability to score from anywhere on the court.  Boston dominates in terms of points-per-game, and field goal and free throw percentage.  All of those things are nice, but I believe that the outcome of this game comes down to Boston’s home court advantage plus the fact that they were able to beat Detroit earlier this year, in Detroit no less, to finally break their losing streak against the Pistons.

NBA Pick:  Boston Celtics -4

Popularity: 9% [?]

Utah Jazz (37-21) @ New Orleans (38-18)
8:00PM EST
A lot of experts expected the Utah Jazz to be good this season, but a real surprise in the NBA this year has been the New Orleans Hornets.  The Hornets already have 38 wins this season, just one win away from their win total all of last season.  Unfortunately for the Hornets, I don’t see them picking up that 39th win tonight against a very talented Utah team.  The problem New Orleans has is previous history against the Jazz.  Over the past 3 seasons, the Jazz have dominated the Hornets, winning 8 of 10 games, and, most importantly to us, they’ve covered in 7 of 10 games against New Orleans including an impressive 110-88 win in Utah earlier this month.  The Jazz average about 5 points more per game than New Orleans, and that seems like a much more likely outcome than the 3.5 points the Hornets are giving tonight. 

NBA Tip:  Utah Jazz +3.5

Popularity: 9% [?]

Boston Celtics (41-11) at Phoenix Suns (37-17)
10:30PM EST - 2/22/2008

Two of the NBA’s most dominant teams meet tonight in a game that will end up telling us a lot about both squads.  Boston owns the NBA’s best record and, at this point in the season, seem to be everyone’s favorite to represent the Eastern Conference in the NBA Finals.  The Suns have earned one of the best records in the West, plus added Shaq to their roster, though it’s still too early to tell whether gaining Shaq and losing Shawn Marion will improve this team or not.  What we do know is that this is a playoff-quality match-up and that the winner of this game will be making a strong statement for how good they really are.  I know the Suns are coming off a 4-point loss to the Lakers on Wednesday, and that game was certainly a statement-type game as well, but you do have to consider that it was their first game after the All-Star break, as well as their first game with the big guy.  That’s no excuse, rather, it’s all the more reason Phoenix should be ultra-motivate for tonight’s clash against Boston.  The Celtics are seen as the pinnacle of the NBA, so if Phoenix can find a way to win tonight, it should give them a huge boost in confidence.  Boston, as they have been so many times this season, are in a position where they are expected to win.  This will be no easy feat, however, if they are able to pull it off, they can further the perception that they are an invincible-type team.  Having that label is two-fold.  Of course they’ll get the “bulls-eye on their back”, but being seen as the Goliath in the league also gives your team the kind of swagger it takes to win a championship.  The bottom line here is that whoever comes out on top tonight is going to get a major boost to their confidence.  In the NBA a little confidence on a good team goes a long, long way.

Celtics @ Suns Pick:  Boston Celtics +1.5

I’m just not ready to go against Boston yet.  Their record on the road is just as good as the Suns’ record at home, and nobody has been better than the Celtics at covering the spread on the road as they’ve earned an unmatched 36-15 record against the spread in their last 51 road contests.

Popularity: 8% [?]

Boston Celtics (41-10) at Golden State Warriors (32-21)
10:30 PM EST
East meets West in a showdown of two of the best teams from their respective conference.  On paper Golden State actually scores more points, grabs more rebounds, has less turnovers, and gets more points from their bench than the Celtics.  What you need to remember about those stats is that they are primarily against Western Conference teams, which, despite having a few top-tier teams, simply isn’t as good as a conference as the East.  Look, Boston is sporting a 41-10 record, but why we’ve been riding them all season long is that they continue to cover the spread every night.  Their 31-18 record against the spread is one of the best records in recent memory.  Will the books wise up?  I don’t know, you’d think they would have caught on by now.  All I know is that I’ll continue to ride the Celtics until they buck me. 

NBA Pick:  Boston Celtics -1

Popularity: 7% [?]

L.A. Lakers (31-17) @ Orlando Magic (32-19)
7:00 PM EST
Even with Kobe’s finger hurting the smart play is on the Lakers Friday night.  The Lakers have won 5 of their last 6 against the Magic and those Lakers teams were not as good a match for the Magic as this year’s squad. Orlando’s big 3 of Rashard Lewis, Hedo Turkoglu, and Dwight Howard have been amazing this year, but it’s the back-court where the Lakers shine, and where the Magic struggle.  Paul Gasol isn’t Dwight Howard by any means, but he is good enough to cause problems down-low for the Magic’s center.  I’m quite confident that Kobe’s supporting cast can make up for any short-comings he might experience due to his injury.

NBA Pick:  L.A. Lakers +1.5

Deposit with your checking account!

San Antonio Spurs (31-16) @ New York Knicks (14-35)
7:30 PM EST
The Knicks are one of the worst teams in the NBA.  They don’t have much to play for and it really shows on the court.  Friday night they’ll get a heavy dose of the anti-Knicks, the San Antonio Spurs.  Were the Knicks’ poor attitude and poor chemistry has turned into a losing record, the Spurs’ positive attitude and great chemistry has turned them into (again) one of the best teams in the NBA.  There’s nothing here I can see in favor of the Knicks.  They don’t play well at home, they are poorly coached, they can’t score, they can’t keep anyone from scoring, and, like I said, half of the time the New York players look like they’d rather be at home playing XBox360 instead of playing professional basketball.  New York’s downward spiral continues Friday night.

NBA Pick:  San Antonio Spurs -7

Popularity: 8% [?]

Good Morning!  There’s so much NBA action going on tonight that we are going to post lines on every game available at press, plus give our pick for each match-up.  My favorite games tonight are Spurs/Wizards and Lakers/Hawks.  I’m taking the big-dogs in both games, the Spurs over the Wizards and the Lakers over the Hawks.  Those are the only two games I’m really big on tonight, the rest should be considered “leans” or strong opinions, not full picks.  Good Luck!

NBA Odds by SportsBook.com

San Antonio Spurs @ Washington Wizards +5.5
Pick:  San Antonio Spurs -5.5

L.A. Lakers @ Atlanta Hawks +7
Pick:  L.A. Lakers -7

New Jersey Nets @ Orlando Magic -11
Pick:  New Jersey Nets +11

Miami Heat @ Detroit Pistons -16
Pick:  Detroit Pistons -16

Seattle Super Sonics @ Sacramento Kings -9.5
Pick:  Seattle Super Sonics +9.5

New Orleans Hornets @ Phoenix Suns -6
Pick:  Phoenix Suns -6

Chicago Bulls @ Portland Trail Blazers -6
Pick: Portland Trail Blazers -6

Popularity: 11% [?]

L.A. Lakers (28-16) @ Toronto Raptors (25-20)
7:00PM EST - 2/1/2008
Over the past few seasons the Lakers have built a reputation of being a team that plays really well at home and really poorly on the road.  This year they seem to have broken their pattern of struggling on the road, achieving a winning record away from their home court.  So much of this game, like so many Laker games this season, is going to rely on the play of Kobe Bryant.  Who does Toronto have to guard and/or answer Kobe?  They simply have no great defenders and no great scorers and that should be the difference in the game.  The Lakers have won three of the last four and eight of the last ten in this series for that very reason.  If you’ll remember about two years ago against the Raptors, Kobe had his 81 point game.  Now, I’ll be the first to admit that the Raptors are a better team now, but they still don’t have anyone to slow Kobe down enough to pull out this victory.  I’m predicting and outright Lakers win tonight, but take the 5.5 points as a nice cushion.

Free NBA Pick:  L.A. Lakers +5.5

Popularity: 7% [?]