Game Time:  Saturday, April 5th - 8:45 PM ET
Pick:  North Carolina -3 vs Kansas
If you’ve watched these teams play, you’ve seen how good they both really are.  The reason North Carolina gets the edge is consistency.  Kansas is a hot-cold team as we all saw against Davidson, and though they managed to pull out the victory based purely on superior talent, they won’t have that luxury against UNC.  The Jayhawks almost certainly have more players that will end up in the NBA, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that they are the better college basketball team.  I guess you could say that I see North Carolina as more of an elite team and Kansas more of five individuals on the court with a few elite players.  Look, I realize that I’m on the bandwagon here as over 70% of the betting world has picked the Tar Heels to cover the three point spread.  However, one thing I’ve noticed throughout the years is that the public struggles mightily during regular season games in all sports, but in the big prime time events they fair significantly better, particularly when the spread is so low.

Popularity: 10% [?]

Game time:  Saturday, April 5th - 6:05 PM ET
Pick:  UCLA +2 vs Memphis
Memphis looks to be the better team in this match up on paper.  Their problem is that, of course, basketball is not played on paper, it’s played on the hardwood.  I still have a problem with Memphis accumulating their stats for the season in Conference USA.  My contention is that UCLA would earn at least as good of stats as Memphis if they were to play in Conference USA while I do not think Memphis could match UCLA’s numbers in the PAC 10.  What I’m really saying here is that I see UCLA as the better team.  I can tell you right now that Memphis has impressed me throughout this tournament.  It’s not that I didn’t think they could make it to the Final Four, it’s just that I did not expect them to dominate teams like Texas and Michigan State like they did.  UCLA has done pretty much what everyone thought they would do.  They play some of the best defense in the nation and they’ve dominated the teams you’d expect them to.  It probably sounds like a broken record at this point since it’s been said so many times, but the difference in this game will come from the Bruins’ defense.  You basically have to pick a side.  You’ve got a Memphis team that has been virtually unstoppable on offense, against the UCLA team that has held three of their last four NCAA tournament opponents under 60 points.  Match that stat with the fact that UCLA has been able to play with high-octane offenses throughout the season and you’ve got a real winning combination.

Popularity: 13% [?]

Now that the field has been set for the NCAA Men’s College Basketball Tournament, we’d like to take a look at who Vegas thinks is going to win it all.  As you might expect, the #1 seeds have the best odds.  North Carolina and UCLA are the odds-on favorites, both coming in at 4 to 1 to win the tournament.  Kansas and Memphis, the other two #1 seeds, are coming in at 5/1 and 6/1 respectively, so, according to Las Vegas odds makers, one of the number one seeds is likely to win the NCAA Championship.  But you don’t need us to tell you that the #1 seeds are the favorites to win the tourney, that’s why they are ranked #1, right?  What we’re more interested in, and what you’re probably more interested in, is which teams could make a run at the tournament that have odds that are a little more in your favor.  The first two teams I’d consider are Texas and Duke, both with 14 to 1 odds to win it all.  You aren’t looking at a monster pay off if one of them does win it all, but I feel that both Duke and Texas have just as good a chance to win the title as a team like Memphis or UCLA and you have to love 14 to 1 compared to 6 to 1 or worse.  Other teams I like in the field to possibly make a run are Wisconsin at 20/1, Stanford at 25/1, and Pitt at 30/1.  These are teams that, if they catch fire, could make a legitimate run in the tournament.  Granted, it would be difficult to do, but the possibility is enough for me to put them on this list.  There are two 40/1 teams that I also like, UConn and Clemson.  These are teams that struggled a little down the stretch, but teams I could see making it deep into the tournament and possibly upsetting one of the big guns in the bracket.  Well, those are our opinions on the recently released odds for the NCAA Basketball Tournament.  Here is the complete listing of the odds from BodogLife.com so you can form your own opinions: 

American 2000/1
 
Arizona 80/1

Arkansas 150/1
 
Austin Peay 1000/1
 
Baylor 150/1
 
Belmont 1500/1
 
Boise State 750/1
 
Butler 100/1
 
BYU 200/1
 
Cal State Fullerton 1500/1
 
Clemson 40/1
 
Connecticut 40/1
 
Coppin State 2500/1
 
Cornell 750/1
 
Davidson 150/1
 
Drake 80/1
 
Duke 14/1
 
George Mason 500/1
 
Georgetown 14/1
 
Georgia 250/1
 
Gonzaga 125/1
 
Indiana 100/1
 
Kansas 5/1
 
Kansas State 75/1
 
Kent State 200/1
 
Kentucky 150/1
 
Louisville 18/1
 
Marquette 55/1
 
Memphis 6/1
 
Miami Florida 100/1
 
Michigan State 50/1
 
Mississippi State 80/1
 
Mississippi Valley State 2500/1
 
Mount St. Mary’s 2500/1
 
North Carolina 4/1
 
Notre Dame 60/1
 
Oklahoma 150/1
 
Oral Roberts 500/1
 
Oregon 150/1
 
Pittsburgh 30/1
 
Portland State 2500/1
 
Purdue 70/1
 
Saint Joseph’s 250/1
 
Saint Mary’s 150/1
 
San Diego 500/1
 
Siena 500/1
 
South Alabama 200/1
 
Stanford 25/1
 
Temple 300/1
 
Tennessee 18/1
 
Texas 14/1
 
Texas A&M 200/1
 
Texas Arlington 2000/1
 
UCLA 4/1
 
UMBC 2000/1
 
UNLV 250/1
 
USC 45/1
 
Vanderbilt 50/1
 
Villanova 250/1
 
Washington State 40/1
 
Western Kentucky 500/1
 
West Virgnia 125/1
 
Winthrop 500/1
 
Wisconsin 20/1
 
Xavier 35/1

Popularity: 38% [?]

With March Madness just a week away and Selection Sunday coming this weekend, it’s time to prepare to fill out your bracket!  Before we jump right into the tips, let’s get a few things out of the way.  First off, you are going to run into thousands of tips on the Internet on how to win your NCAA bracket.  So what makes our list so much better?  Well, it pains me to say it, but nothing, really.  The fact of the matter is that we are providing tips, and they are by no means perfect.  Could they help?  Sure!  Could they ruin your bracket?  We hope not!  Basically, what we’ve done is gone out and collected as many good tips as we could.  Because there are so many to pick from out there, we were hoping to compile a list that sorted through all the BS and gave you the tips that really matter and I think we’ve accomplished that.  Now, I certainly don’t want to discourage you, but the last thing I want to say before getting into the list is that you aren’t going to fill out a perfect bracket this year.  You probably won’t ever fill out a perfect bracket in your lifetime.  I know that’s discouraging, but keep in mind that you won’t need to go undefeated to win your pool and have fun during March Madness cheering your teams on.  You know how you always hear about the odds to win the lottery?  How it’s more likely to get struck by lightning, or freeze to death, or whatever ridiculous scenario they can come up with, than it is to win the lottery?  Ha!  Whoever said that must not be a very big basketball fan.  The odds to win the Powerball Lottery are just over 146 million to 1.  Compare that to the odds to fill out a perfect NCAA Tournament bracket, which comes in at well over 9 quintillion to 1 (9 quintillion is a 9 with 18 zeroes behind it), and you can clearly see how difficult it would be to pull off the perfect picks through every round of the tournament.  Now that I’ve said all of that and given you some fun facts, let’s get to our NCAA Tournament Tips list already!

(Almost) Anything Goes In The First Round
This is pretty basic, but an important tip to remember.  Don’t give your bracket the kiss-of-death and pick any 16 seeds to beat 1 seeds (and normally not any 15 seeds to beat 2 seeds), but just about everything else goes!  You have to ignore the favorites in these match ups and pick some low seeds.  It might go against logic, but face it, the better-seeded team does not always win.  Also keep in mind that since 1989 there has been only one NCAA Tournament in which a 12th seeded team did not beat a 5th seeded team, so you should pick one or more 12 seeds to win in the first round, but be selective!

Seed Difference Matters
This conflicts a little with our first tip, but remember not to put all of your eggs in one basket, you’ll need a balanced approach to win your pool!  Throughout the history of the NCAA Tournament you’ll find that a seed difference of 4 or more leads to an 80% chance of victory.  So, if a 3 seed is playing 9 seed (a seed difference of 6), 80% of the time the 3 seed will win.  That means that the majority of your picks in the first round should be favorites, but you do need to pick and choose some upsets if you are going to beat your competition.

A #1 Seed Is Pretty Sweet
Another great stat that will help you on your way to winning your NCAA Tournament pool is that historically #1 seeds have an 84% chance of making it to at least the Sweet 16.  That means that at least three, and probably all four, of the #1 seeds in your bracket should advance to the Sweet 16.  I do realize there are always upset opportunities, and my advice is to pick them when you truly feel it’s the right pick, just be aware of the odds that are against you!

They Call It The “Elite 8″ For A Reason
Once you get to the Elite 8 portion of your bracket, try to clear your mind and start over.  Once we hit that point in the tournament, the best teams are the best teams.  If a “Cinderella” team slips into your Elite 8, that’s great, just don’t go sending them to the Final Four.  Use your head once you get to that point.  Normally, the better seed is going to win, or the team that is favored according to the Vegas odds.  Imagine which of your teams will be favored, not who you want to win, and advance them to the Final Four.  The really good teams are there for a reason, the lower seeds are just happy to be there at that point and they are likely running on fumes. 

Hopefully all, or at least a few, of these tips were helpful, or at least gave you some information you might not have known.  Good luck with your brackets and enjoy March Madness!!!

Popularity: 60% [?]