It’s time to get excited about MLB betting!  For far too long, Major League Baseball has taken a backseat to the other major sports in the world of sports betting.  Most people are under the impression that there are no profits to be made in betting on baseball.  They couldn’t be more wrong!  MLB betting has more potential than any other sport to make you money and, when you bet intelligently based on value, there is significantly less risk involved.  MLB bets are almost always based on the money line.  That means that there is no point spread involved, if you pick a winning side on the money line, your team simply has to win.  So, what makes this concept any different, or better, than betting on the more conventional sports like football and basketball?  Money line MLB betting allows the bettor to risk less money in order to profit when you bet on underdogs.  Underdogs are simply the team that the sportsbook thinks will lose the game, the bigger the underdog, the bigger the payout. 

For example, we will say Tampa Bay is playing Boston.  Most bettors, and therefore most sportsbooks, are definitely going to have Boston favored in this game, perhaps by as much as 2 to 1.  Their logic is that the Red Sox have twice as good of a chance to win than do the Devil Rays.  If you polled the general public over the past several seasons, you’d likely have the large majority of people say that the Red Sox would easily win any given game against the Devil Rays as well, in fact, they might be willing to put money on it. 

Let’s take a look at what would have happened to these hypothetical people had they put their money where their mouth is and bet the Red Sox on the money line every time they played the D-Rays throughout the 2006 MLB Season.  We will assume this particular person bet to win $100 on each game:

Boston Red Sox v. Tampa Bay Devil Rays | 2006

Series 1
Bet on Boston $146 to win $100 > Result: Loss -$146
Bet on Boston $128 to win $100 > Result: Loss -$128
Bet on Boston $120 to win $100 > Result: Win $100

Series 1 Results:  1-2 Record , Down $174

Series 2
Bet on Boston $153 to win $100 > Result:  Win $100
Bet on Boston $107 to win $100 > Result:  Loss -$107
Bet on Boston $194 to win $100 > Result:  Loss -$194
Bet on Boston $143 to win $100 > Result:  Loss -$143

Series 2 Results:  1-3 Record, Down $344

Series 3
Bet on Boston $185 to win $100 > Result:  Win $100
Bet on Boston $273 to win $100 > Result:  Win $100
Bet on Boston $107 to win $100 > Result:  Win $100
Bet on Boston $330 to win $100 > Result:  Win $100

Series 3 Results:  4-0 Record, Up $400

Series 4
Bet on Boston $172 to win $100 > Result:  Loss -$172
Bet on Boston $138 to win $100 > Result:  Win $100
Bet on Boston $150 to win $100 > Result:  Loss –$150

Series 4 Results:  1-2 Record, Down $222

Series 5
Bet on Boston $163 to win $100 > Result:  Loss -$163
Bet on Boston $295 to win $100 > Result:  Win $100
Bet on Boston $201 to win $100 > Result:  Win $100

Series 5 Results:  2-1 Record, Up $37

 

Overall Results:  9-8 Record, Down $303

These results speak volumes.  First, you may notice that the overall record was a winning one, however the net money gain was negative.  It is important to remember when choosing to bet on favorites, you are going to need to win a significantly higher percentage of your bets to see any profits.  What we need to look at is potential, which is really what is most important in MLB betting. 

Now, what if you would have bet on the D-Rays instead?  What would those results look like?  Well, for starters you would have gone 8-9, a losing record, but you would have won approximately $273!  As for potential there is no comparison, you were risking a total of $1,700 with the potential to win approximately $2,700!

Now, obviously it is much more difficult to pick underdogs to win, but when you put it into the perspective of risk versus reward it is definitely worth your time researching for MLB betting.     

Situations like this happen all the time.  Granted, it is not the norm, but if you know how to pick your spots you can profit this season for sure.

Popularity: 10% [?]

With March Madness just a week away and Selection Sunday coming this weekend, it’s time to prepare to fill out your bracket!  Before we jump right into the tips, let’s get a few things out of the way.  First off, you are going to run into thousands of tips on the Internet on how to win your NCAA bracket.  So what makes our list so much better?  Well, it pains me to say it, but nothing, really.  The fact of the matter is that we are providing tips, and they are by no means perfect.  Could they help?  Sure!  Could they ruin your bracket?  We hope not!  Basically, what we’ve done is gone out and collected as many good tips as we could.  Because there are so many to pick from out there, we were hoping to compile a list that sorted through all the BS and gave you the tips that really matter and I think we’ve accomplished that.  Now, I certainly don’t want to discourage you, but the last thing I want to say before getting into the list is that you aren’t going to fill out a perfect bracket this year.  You probably won’t ever fill out a perfect bracket in your lifetime.  I know that’s discouraging, but keep in mind that you won’t need to go undefeated to win your pool and have fun during March Madness cheering your teams on.  You know how you always hear about the odds to win the lottery?  How it’s more likely to get struck by lightning, or freeze to death, or whatever ridiculous scenario they can come up with, than it is to win the lottery?  Ha!  Whoever said that must not be a very big basketball fan.  The odds to win the Powerball Lottery are just over 146 million to 1.  Compare that to the odds to fill out a perfect NCAA Tournament bracket, which comes in at well over 9 quintillion to 1 (9 quintillion is a 9 with 18 zeroes behind it), and you can clearly see how difficult it would be to pull off the perfect picks through every round of the tournament.  Now that I’ve said all of that and given you some fun facts, let’s get to our NCAA Tournament Tips list already!

(Almost) Anything Goes In The First Round
This is pretty basic, but an important tip to remember.  Don’t give your bracket the kiss-of-death and pick any 16 seeds to beat 1 seeds (and normally not any 15 seeds to beat 2 seeds), but just about everything else goes!  You have to ignore the favorites in these match ups and pick some low seeds.  It might go against logic, but face it, the better-seeded team does not always win.  Also keep in mind that since 1989 there has been only one NCAA Tournament in which a 12th seeded team did not beat a 5th seeded team, so you should pick one or more 12 seeds to win in the first round, but be selective!

Seed Difference Matters
This conflicts a little with our first tip, but remember not to put all of your eggs in one basket, you’ll need a balanced approach to win your pool!  Throughout the history of the NCAA Tournament you’ll find that a seed difference of 4 or more leads to an 80% chance of victory.  So, if a 3 seed is playing 9 seed (a seed difference of 6), 80% of the time the 3 seed will win.  That means that the majority of your picks in the first round should be favorites, but you do need to pick and choose some upsets if you are going to beat your competition.

A #1 Seed Is Pretty Sweet
Another great stat that will help you on your way to winning your NCAA Tournament pool is that historically #1 seeds have an 84% chance of making it to at least the Sweet 16.  That means that at least three, and probably all four, of the #1 seeds in your bracket should advance to the Sweet 16.  I do realize there are always upset opportunities, and my advice is to pick them when you truly feel it’s the right pick, just be aware of the odds that are against you!

They Call It The “Elite 8″ For A Reason
Once you get to the Elite 8 portion of your bracket, try to clear your mind and start over.  Once we hit that point in the tournament, the best teams are the best teams.  If a “Cinderella” team slips into your Elite 8, that’s great, just don’t go sending them to the Final Four.  Use your head once you get to that point.  Normally, the better seed is going to win, or the team that is favored according to the Vegas odds.  Imagine which of your teams will be favored, not who you want to win, and advance them to the Final Four.  The really good teams are there for a reason, the lower seeds are just happy to be there at that point and they are likely running on fumes. 

Hopefully all, or at least a few, of these tips were helpful, or at least gave you some information you might not have known.  Good luck with your brackets and enjoy March Madness!!!

Popularity: 60% [?]

There is a little more than a month left in the NBA regular season, but the MVP Candidates for the 2007-2008 campaign are already shaping up.  Right now it is more than likely a two-man race with a few other players on the outside looking in.  It’s become more of a cliche than anything, but you do have to remember that the player selected for the MVP is not necessarily the best player in the NBA, but the player that is the most valuable to his team throughout the season.  Now, many times those two distinctions can be the same players, but as we’ve seen in the past with Steve Nash, it is not always the case.  That’s not a knock on Nash by any means, but to say he’s a better overall player than Kobe or LeBron I think would be a mistake, however, in his role he was certainly deserving of the MVP awards he has won.

#1 - LeBron James - Cleveland Cavs
Let’s face it, the Cavs would not be a playoff team without LeBron, in fact, they may end up missing the playoffs this year if they aren’t careful.  If Cleveland does make it to the playoffs I think you have to consider James as the top pick for the MVP award.  He’s leading the league in scoring with 30.8 points per game, but he also has more assists per game (7.5) than any of the other top 10 scorers in the league.  He also holds the edge on the majority of the top scorers in rebounds with 8 boards per game.  Only Amare Stoudemire, Dirk Nowitzki, and Chris Bosh have more rebounds per game than LeBron with significantly less points and significantly more height on their side.  LeBron is the complete package.  He’s everything he was billed to more.  He’s all of 23 years old, but this year he stands to win his first of what I believe will be many MVP awards.

#2 - Kobe Bryant - L.A. Lakers
Can you believe the Kobe has never won an MVP award?  He’s one of the premiere scorers in the league, 2nd only to LeBron, but his team is on a tear (currently tied for the best record in the West with San Antonio), and he does a lot of the things that Lebron does well, though James still holds a small statistical edge in most categories.  Kobe’s talent has never been questioned, but his ability to carry a team without the help of Shaq has been in question since the big fella left.  This is Kobe’s first legitimate chance to prove he’s the new leader of this team and that, with a little help, he can lead the Lakers back to the promise land.  I would be happy with Kobe as the MVP this season.  LeBron clearly has better stats, but Kobe is on a much better team and that could ultimately be the deciding factor for MVP voters.

#3 -  Allen Iverson - Denver Nuggets
The third spot on this list was a tough one to pick.  There are plenty of deserving candidates, but I went with the players I felt most improves the players around him, and that player is Allen Iverson.  Not only is he 3rd on the scoring list with 26.8 points per game, but he dishes out 7.3 assists, plus draws a lot of fouls and shoots over 80% from the free throw line.  The Nuggets should make the playoffs and that’s what gives Iverson the edge over a guy like Dwyane Wade, who has similar stats.  Amare Stoudemire and Dirk Nowitzki could also be considered, but they aren’t having the kind of stand out seasons that you expect from an MVP.  The other player that could have been listed in front of Iverson is his teammate, Carmelo Anthony, but I truly believe his success is fueled by Iverson’s play.  Anthony has always had great talent, but since Iverson has come to Denver he has really flourished.  Iverson has taken plenty of knocks throughout his career for being a selfish player, but the statistics tell a different story.  Here is a guy who is barely 6 feet tall who grinds it out every game and finds ways to get his teammates the ball while still putting up the impressive scoring numbers.  In my book , that’s enough justification for his spot on this list.

Popularity: 34% [?]

Why Memphis is NOT the best Team in College Hoops
Memphis continues to hold the #1 spot in the national rankings, but are they the best team in nation right now?  The short answer to that questions may be yes right now, but can this team really go the distance?  To begin, does Memphis have a strong strength-of-schedule?  That answer is a resounding “No”.  Their schedule strength is ranked somewhere the low 100s, something none of the other teams in the top 10 can say.  In the Top 10 ranked teams in the nation to date, Kansas comes in with the next worst schedule strength at 66, nearly 40 points better than the Tigers.

How does their conference stack up?  As it turns out, and as you probably already knew, not very well at all.  Conference USA may have the #1 team in the country, but there is a huge drop-off in performance beyond the mighty Memphis Tigers.  The conference holds no other teams in the Top 25 rankings.  The Big 10, Big 12, Big East, and ACC all have multiple teams ranked on the national scale.  While you can’t really compare Conference USA to any of those other conferences (nobody expected them to have any major players in the NCAA hunt other than Memphis), this is still significant because they are housing the #1 team in the nation.  The Tigers’ best conference competition comes from Houston at 19-6 and then UAB at 18-8.  If you go any further down the list you will mostly find mid-level teams fighting amongst themselves to be the least mediocre of the mediocre teams in Conference USA.

Why Memphis IS the Best Team In College Hoops
Their record.  It doesn’t matter what conference you play in, 26-0 is impressive on any level, particularly Division I basketball where, with a hot-shooting 3-point team, every team is vulnerable to pick up a loss here and there.  I’m not sure how the Tigers have managed to escape this phenomenon, but at this point in the season I’m certain that it’s not just a lucky break. 

Their record when it matters.  Against other Top 25-ranked opponents, Memphis is a perfect 4-0.  There are only two teams with 5 wins against Top 25 opponents, UCLA and UConn, and the list of teams with 4 wins against the top 25 is a pretty exclusive bunch: Duke, Texas, Purdue, and Arizona State.  The big difference being, of course, that the Tigers have yet to take a loss from their Top 25 opponents.

So, Are They The Best Or Not?
Obviously they are the best team record-wise and rankings-wise, but they have a lot left to prove.  They still have some tough games coming up, but let’s say, just for the sake of argument, that they do end up finishing the regular season undefeated.  I still do not think that, at the end of the season, they will come out of the NCAA Tournament as Champions.  The regular season and conference play is one thing, but making a run all the way through the bracket is on a different level completely.  Now, do I really think they will even make it as far as remaining undefeated for the entire regular season.  Absolutely not.  In fact, next week we could very well have a new #1.

#1 Memphis hosts #2 Tennessee this Saturday, February 23rd - You can check the latest lines and bet on the game at SportsBook.com

Popularity: 8% [?]

The Shaquille O’neal trade to the Suns, sending Shawn Marion to the Miami Heat doesn’t make a lot of sense.  The Suns are trading one of the best young forwards in the league for possibly the best center of all-time, but a center nearing the end of his career and it is true what they say: the bigger they are, the harder they fall.  Shaq’s production is down, his health is questionable, and I simply don’t see how he fits into the Suns’ scheme.  How long is the big guy going to play each game?  5-minutes?  Trust me, I’m one of the biggest Shaq proponents out there. I think he’s had one of the greatest careers any player will ever have.  The fact is that he’s getting to old to get up and down the court with the likes of Steve Nash and Amare Stoudemire.  The bottom line is that I do not see it as a very good trade.  Only time will tell.  Do I think it will end up being one of the worst trades of all-time?  Not even close.  But it did get me thinking.  What are some of the worst trades in recent memory?  Below you’ll find the worst 3 trades I could come up with from the last 15 years.  Think you can think of some worse ones?  Prove it by posting your worst 3 NBA trades ever. (Please note: I do realize some of the trades involved other players and, in some cases, draft picks, but I went straight for the meat and potatoes, concentrating more on player for player value.)

Bet on Basketball!

#3  2004-05 the L.A. Lakers trade Caron Butler to the Washington Wizards for Kwame Brown- It’s hard to say what the Lakers saw in Kwame that no one else did.  Could it be that he’s never fully developed into an NBA-caliber player?  Maybe it was his career 7.7 point per game.  Whatever it was at the time, it has turned into is a horrific trade for the Lakers who haven’t seen much improvement from Brown.  I doubt the Wizards are complaining about Butler, who has quickly become a perennial all-star and now averages around 19 points per game.

#2 1998-99 The Milwaukee Bucks trade Dirk Nowitzki to The Dallas Mavericks for Pat Garrity & Robert “Tractor” Traylor- I’m not going to say I saw Dirk Nowitzki turning into the player that he has, but I can say I saw more talent in him than I say in Garrity or “Tractor” Traylor.  Nowitzki turned into a 7-time (so far) All-Star who has put together several near-MVP seasons (including one win last year) and lead his team to the playoffs in 7 of the 9 seasons he’s been with them.  Traylor never averaged over 6 points per game and retired after just 7 seasons.  Garrity is at least still playing basketball (if you want to call it that) contributing less than 2 points and 2 rebounds per game for the past 2 seasons.  Enough said.

#1 1996-97 the Charlotte Hornets trade Kobe Bryant to the L.A. Lakers for Vlade Divac- This pick for my #1 worst NBA trade of all-time isn’t a knock on Vlade, who was actually a solid player.  He contributed to every team he was on.  He averaged around 11 points per game for the Hornets, rebounded well, and played excellent defense.  This pick, however, had to be made as Charlotte dropped the ball on one of the greatest players of all-time.  To date Kobe has 1 MVP, 3 NBA Championships, he’s a 10-time All-Star player, has averaged 24.6 points per game for his career, and plays great defense.  To get right to the point, Charlotte traded a Hall of Fame player for a role-playing one-time all-star who they ended up dumping after just 2 seasons.

There were a few that just missed the top 3, but I feel pretty good about the list overall.  Disagree?  Great!  Post your top 3 or 5 or 10 or 30 worst trades.
 
Just missed the cut:  Jermaine O’Neal for Dale Davis & Vince Carter for (basically) Alonzo Mourning, who will never play a minute for the Raptors.

Popularity: 70% [?]

Proposition bets have become somewhat of a tradition in the Super Bowl.  What is a proposition (prop) bet?  Basically, a sportsbook will present a proposition and give you to bet on the outcome based on the odds they set.  A classic example would be betting on the Player to be named MVP of Super Bowl XLII.  You could take the favorite (most likely to win) with Tom Brady at 4/9, or you have the option to take other, less likely to win candidates like Kevin Faulk at 11/1 or Donte Stallworth at 25/1.  You also have the option to take “The Field” which is representative of all players not listed.  In some situations this might be a good option, but for the Super Bowl you’re most likely going to bet on one of the bigger names playing in the game.  It’s really pretty cut and dry.  If the player you bet on ends up winning the MVP, you win, if they don’t win, you don’t win.  These days online sportsbook have taken prop bets on the Super Bowl to a new level.  You can bet on traditional props like “Who will have the most rushing yards?” or “Which player will score the first touchdown in the game?”.  One proposition that has gained a lot of popularity over the past decade or so has been the coin flip.  Yes, you can bet on heads or tails, take your 50/50 odds and hope for the best.  Bettors can find a wide variety of propositions at any number of online sportsbooks, however, I set out to find the most oddball, offbeat, ridiculous Super Bowl Pro bets I could for Super Bowl XLII, and I’m confident I’ve found the best book to place those bets, if you were so inclined. 

BetUS.com has the most creative Super Bowl XLII bets you’re likely to find online.  Sure, they have hundreds of regular prop bets, but you can find those just about anywhere else.  Check out some of the hilarious options they have for you to bet on this year’s Super Bowl and our picks on them:

Pre-Game Prop
The length, in seconds, of the National Anthem - Over/Under 103.5 seconds 
Pick:  Take the over.  Singing at a normal pace the Anthem comes in at around 80 seconds, the Super Bowl version is always longer.

Fox Commentary
Number of times Joe Buck mentions Peyton Manning - Over/Under 5.5
Pick:  Easily an over.  With Eli playing there will be no shortage of comparisons and passing comments on his big bro.

Half-Time Show (note:  this is where it really starts to get ludicrous)
Odds that Tom Petty smokes a joint on stage during his half-time performance - 100/1
Pick:  There’s really no chance of this happening, but it’s funny that there is actually an option out there to bet on the situation.

“Wacky Props”
Bet on the color of the liquid to be dumped on the winning coach:
Transparent 3/1
Orange 2/1
Red 3/1
Purple 16/1
Pick:  Transparent.  I don’t really know why, it’s just a feeling.  I like how Orange is the favorite.  How did they come up with that?  Is that the most popular flavor of Gatorade in the NFL?  Did they do a study on past Super Bowls that showed the majority were orange?  Sorry, Purple, looks like you’re the big underdog this year!

And my favorite prop bets of Super Bowl XLII…

Britney Spears
To bring her kids to the game 50/1
To streak the field 100/1
Pick:  You obviously don’t want to bet on either of these, but I think someone over at BetUS either has a great sense of humor or way too much time on their hands.  Probably both.

That’s going to do it for our look at Super Bowl XLII Proposition Bets.  We’ll be back soon with more on the actual game, including our pick for this year’s winner!  Good luck and thanks for reading!

Popularity: 13% [?]

Have you ever been to a really rancid Super Bowl party?  Have you ever hosted one? Odds are you’ll be able to answer yes to at least one of those questions (whether you know it or not is another question).  In today’s  article we’ll give you a few tips to make sure your Super Bowl XLII party is a monster hit.

I’ll get #1 out of the way quickly.  Don’t plan to meet a bunch of friends at a bar for the Super Bowl and call that your Super Bowl party, that’s weak.  Plus it sucks.  It’s usually way too crowded, you can’t have a conversation with anyone, and most people do have to work the next day and you don’t need to add to your odds of getting a hangover. (more…)

Popularity: 23% [?]