Betting the Super Bowl MVP

Arguably the most popular bet on the Super Bowl outside the side and the total is wagering on the MVP. But for Super Bowl XLIV, it’s almost not worth your time to bet on the player most expect to win it, Colts QB Peyton Manning.

First off, let’s be clear that the MVP award is voted on by the media. So it’s really what players was the best “story” of the game, not necessarily the MVP. For example, Manning was named MVP of the Super Bowl last time it was in Miami (XLI). But Manning had one of the lowest QB ratings for a Super Bowl-winning quarterback, completing 25 of 38 passes for 247 yards with one touchdown and one interception. But he won the award because the story of the game was that Manning won his first title.

In reality, the Colts dominated the Bears on the ground and with screen passes that rainy night. The award should have gone to running back Dominic Rhodes, who had 21 carries for 113 yards and a TD, along with one catch for 8 yards. But, again, Manning finally winning the “big one” was the story, so the media gave it to him.

This year, Manning is a ridiculous -175 on WagerWeb.com to win MVP. If he has even a decent game and the Colts win, he probably does take home his second award. But a great long-shot bet might be Indy defensive end Dwight Freeney. He has been the story of this week on whether he will play or not with a torn ligament in his ankle. If this were the regular season, he’d probably miss at least a month, but he absolutely will play and was going to try to practice Friday for the first time since suffering the injury in the AFC title game. If Freeney can sack Brees a few times, perhaps force or recover a fumble, he will be the story of the game – assuming the Colts win. Thus at +4000, he is easily the best long shot bet.

As for the Saints, Brees is the obvious WagerWeb.com favorite at +250. And Brees certainly will be the story if New Orleans wins its first championship. However, I would take a shot at +1200 on Pierre Thomas, who is clearly the Saints’ featured back. While Reggie Bush gets all the publicity, he only gets about five or six carries a game. Thomas figures to run the ball at least 15 times, and if he tops 100 yards with a TD, he will be among the MVP favorites. However, a running back hasn’t won the MVP award since Terrell Davis in XXXII when the Broncos beat the Patriots. Either a quarterback (six times), a receiver (three times, including Santonio Holmes last year) or a defensive player (twice) has won it since then.

And don’t expect a player from a losing team to get the award. It has only happened once (Cowboys linebacker Chuck Howley in a Super Bowl V loss to the Colts).

Bet on the Super Bowl at WagerWeb.com

Bet on Sports at Bodog Sportsbook and cash in on your share of huge bonuses!

Popularity: 1% [?]

Subscribe to comments You can skip to the end and leave a response. Pinging is currently not allowed.

Post Tags:

Browse Timeline