SUPER BOWL XLII
N.Y. Giants (13-6) vs. New England Patriots (18-0)
6:17PM EST - 2/3/2008
As with most Super Bowls, the 2008 Super Bowl has divided fans into two distinct factions.  The first believe that the Patriots are unstoppable and will complete their undefeated season without much of a challenge from their NFC foe.  The second contingent believe the Giants are the perfect underdog.  New York is coming into the came on an impressive run through the playoffs, not to mention a noble effort against the Patriots in their final regular season game, a game that had no real meaning for the Giants, and that performance won a lot of casual fans over.  I, for one, am not buying the David versus Goliath match-up.  It works great for marketing and inspiring discussion about the game, but that perception really clouds what really matters: Who is the better football team?  Don’t think about it too much, your first inclination is most likely the correct one.  Yeah, it’s the undefeated New England Patriots.  

That part is easy enough, now you have to consider the 12.5 spread.  I think too many people are making too big of a deal about a double digit spread in the Super Bowl.  It’s not the first time, and it’s not even the biggest spread ever in a Super Bowl.  The 49ers -18 vs. Chargers in 1995 for Super Bowl XXIX has been the largest margin so far.  Note that the 49ers covered that spread, as have the majority of teams that have been double-digit favorites in the Super Bowl. 

I don’t see this game being close for several reasons.  I still don’t see Eli Manning as a big-game quarterback.  I obviously can’t deny that he’s played well in his last two games, but the idea that he’s suddenly come of age and that he’s now a seasoned and poised QB with nerves of steal is smoke and mirrors at best.  E. Manning ranked 25th in QB rating this year, completing just 56% of his passes (one of the lowest percentages in the league) and tossing 23 TDs to 20 interceptions (tied for most INTs by any QB in the NFL this year).  Forgive me if I’d rather look at the entire body of work than a small stretch of decent play.  That being said, I do realize that the Giants are primarily a running team.  The only problem there?  New England fields a top 10 rushing defense.  Whatever strengths the Giants have, the Patriots have a counter for it. 

The fact is that the Patriots are the better team, they are rested, they have a chance to make history, and they still play like a team that has something to prove.  I’m not drinking the kool-aid that 67% of the “public bettors” are and taking the underdog.  In the Super Bowl this year, I’ve got the Patriots by a landslide.

Super Bowl XLII Pick:  New England Patriots -12.5

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Tags: events, giants, patriots, super bowl xlii, tips

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